The Clicker: The First "Year of the Portable Media Player"
Every Thursday Stephen Speicher contributes The Clicker, a weekly opinion column on entertainment and technology:
It’s official; CES has wrapped up and the posturing has begun. Last week, industries and companies alike made their annual pilgrimage to the hot Nevada desert to demonstrate their wares. For four days they waited in hour-long cab lines. They threw elaborate parties. They artfully clad ex-“dancers” in their company colors hoping to lure throngs of geeks with thongs and peeks (or is that peaks?). This was all done with the dream that their industry… their company… would be declared “it.” In short, they completed for the mythical title “Year of the …”
The competitors for this year’s title were in no short supply (ironically this can rarely be said about the products they push). Could this be the year of Blu-Ray? Could it be HD DVD? Surely the three-chip DLP will be a candidate. Let’s not rule out Sony’s gem, the Ruby. Finally, an SXRD for the rest of us (well if 10k can really be considered the rest of us).
The current leader in the race, thanks in large part to the phenomenal buzz-worthiness of Toshiba’s Gigabeat S series (and, of course, the iPod), is somewhat of a mirage market, and if things continue on the current path, this could be the first of many a “Year of Portable Media Player.” Many? Yes, many. You see – PMPs are poised to earn the dubious distinction of being a multiple winner. This happens when year after year consumers and the media are convinced that this will be the year it all comes together.
What is a mirage market? Quite simply it’s a market that shows all the promise of being the next big thing, yet never seems to quite arrive. Year after year mirage-market manufacturers fine-tune their products in the hope that this tweak, this goose, this spin will be the change that helps turn the corner from potential to profit. Subsequently, sales disappoint. Where’s the voice dictation we were promised? Where’s the paperless office? Mirages – all of them.
For mirage markets, the formula is generally the same. First, you need a product people want. Rather, you need a product people think they want. The PMP is the perfect example of such a product. Who hasn’t been stuck on an airplane or in a waiting room and thought to themselves, “If only I could be watching Futurama right now!” It seems so simple and so appealing. Unfortunately, you also need a product for which people are willing to pay and therein lies the rub.
In some cases the price is merely monetary. This is the easy case. The more difficult and oft-overlooked challenge is the “hassle” payment. “Am I really going to carry that LG machine around? When am I going to use it? I’m already carrying my laptop on the plane and I’ve got my cellphone which I can’t give up.” This discrepancy between “I want it” and “I’m also willing to pay for it” leads to bizarre survey results where the market should clearly be attacked with gusto and yet sales of product would be anemic. The final piece of the puzzle is that the product “Just needs X to be perfect.” For instance, it just needs to be a little smaller. It just needs a slightly longer battery life. It just needs that little something and then I’ll buy it. This, of course, is just a disguise for “I’m not willing to pay for it.”
The net result is the mirage market; it’s so close that you can see the shimmer of the water but all you’ll really ever get is a big helping of sand.
In the end this market, like all mirages, will eventually disappear. Lightweight video players such as the iPod and the upcoming Toshiba Gigabeat will certainly account for some of the portable video market, but the real solution will be the combination of cell phones and high-speed data networks. Carriers will continue to introduce new and exciting Video-On-Demand services. Meanwhile products like Slingbox will continue to evolve and offer consumers 95% percent of what they’re looking for.
So, before you anoint this year “The Year of the PMP”, ask yourself, “Would I actually buy one?” Chances are you’ll pass, and you’ll choose to let what happened in Vegas stay in Vegas.
If you have comments or suggestions for future columns, drop me a line at theclicker@theevilempire.com
